UDK 327
BBK 60.5 + 65.5 +66.4
G52
Contributors:
S.A. Afontsev, A.G. Arbatov, N.K. Arbatova, V.G. Baranovsky, G.I. Chufrin,
I.V. Danilin, V.Z. Dvorkin, A.A. Dynkin, T.U. Farnasova, V.G. Gelbras,
Ye.Sh. Gontmakher, N.I. Ivanova, N.I. Kalinina, A.N. Kalyadin, E.V. Kirichenko,
V.B. Kondratiev, N.I. Kozyrev, A.V. Kuznetsov, V.V. Lapkin, D.B. Malysheva,
V.V. Mikheyev, Ya.M. Mirkin, S.K. Oznobishchev,V.I. Pantin, O.B. Reznikova,
A.V. Ryabov, E.S. Sadovaya, V.A. Sautkina, I.S. Semenenko, I.A. Seyfulmulyukov,
P.V. Topychkanov, I.P. Tsapenko, G.I. Vaynshteyn, F.G. Voitolovsky, A.G. Volodin,
N,V. Zagladin, A.V. Zagorsky, S.V. Zhukov
Editors of sections:
V.G. Baranovsky (Section III Politics and Security), Ye.Sh. Gontmakher (Section II
Socio-Political Processes), N.I. Ivanova (Section I Economy)
Editors of the book:
A.A. Dynkin, N.I. Ivanova
Member-cPeer reviewers:
Dr. of history V.Ya. Belokrenitsky, Dr. of philosophy Yu.A. Krasin
orrespondent of the RAS O.N. Bykov, Dr. of economics S.K. Dubinin,
The book was originally published in Russian under the title:
Globalnaya perestroika / A.A. Dynkin and N.I. Ivanova. Moscow, VES MIR, 2014.
ISBN 978-5-7777-0589-1
English language edition is the updated version of the Russian language publication.
Translated from Russian by Margret Sutterwaite, Andrei Nikolaev and
Interdialect+ Ltd.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without prior
written permission of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
(IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences and VES MIR Publishers
Cover design by Anna Arenstein
Editors gratefully acknowledge the fi nancial support of the BP company
for this English version publication
Printed in the Russian Federation
ISBN 978-5-7777-0595-2
© IMEMO, 2015
© VES MIR Publishers, translation, 2015
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CONTENTS
Foreword (A.A. Dynkin) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
Postbipolar Polycentric World in the Context
of the Ukrainian Crisis (A.A. Dynkin, N.K. Arbatova) . . . . . . . . . . 10
Section I. ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Introduction (N.I. Ivanova). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Chapter 1. Global Economy in the Search
for a New Growth Model (S.A. Afontsev) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Chapter 2. Innovation (N.I. Ivanova, I.V. Danilin) . . . . . . . . . . 64
Chapter 3. The Corporate World Map (A.V. Kuznetsov) . . . . 83
Chapter 4. Regulation of the Global Financial Sector
(Ya.M. Mirkin) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Chapter 5. USA: A Potential for a Qualitatively New Phase
of Socio-Economic Development (E.V. Kirichenko). . . . . 121
Chapter 6. State Companies and Development Banks in
the Contemporary Economy (V.B. Kondratiev) . . . . . . . . . 145
Chapter 7. “Non-Conventional Hydrocarbon Revolution”:
Impact on Oil and Natural Gas Markets (S.V. Zhukov,
O.B. Reznikova) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Section II. Socio-Political Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Introduction (Ye.Sh. Gontmakher) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Chapter 8. A New Periphery. Challenges of Post-Communist
Development (V. V. Lapkin, V. I. Pantin, A. V. Ryabov) . . . 210
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6
Contents
Chapter 9. Democracy and Challenges of a Changing
World (G. I. Vaynshteyn, N.V. Zagladin, A.V. Ryabov) . . . 232
Chapter 10. Transcultural Migration and the Future of
Multiculturalism (I.P. Tsapenko, I.S. Semenenko) . . . . . . . 248
Chapter 11. Social Imbalances (E.S. Sadovaya,
V.A. Sautkina) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
Chapter 12. 21st Century Individual: In Search of
a New Identity (I.S. Semenenko, V.V. Lapkin) . . . . . . . . . . 296
Section III. Politics and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Introduction (V.G. Baranovsky). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Chapter 13. System of International Relations:
The Emergence of New Realities (V.G. Baranovsky) . . . . 319
Chapter 14. Crisis as Catalyst of European Integration
(N.K. Arbatova) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Chapter 15. New Trends and Controversies of Transatlantic
Relations (F.G. Voitolovsky). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Chapter 16. Dialectic of the US–China Relations
(V.V. Mikheyev, F.G. Voitolovsky) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
Chapter 17. AFPAK Zone as a Source of Instability
in the Region and of Threats to International Security
(G.I. Chufrin, V.G. Gelbras, A.G. Volodin, N.I. Kozyrev,
D.B. Malysheva) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
Chapter 18. Armed Confl icts in the Middle East in
XXIst Century (D.B. Malysheva) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
Chapter 19. International Security: Paradygm Shift
(A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, A.V. Zagorsky,
N.I. Kalinina, A.N. Kalyadin, S.K. Oznobishchev,
P.V. Topychkhanov,
T.U. Farnasova). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495
Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
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