Национальный цифровой ресурс Руконт - межотраслевая электронная библиотека (ЭБС) на базе технологии Контекстум (всего произведений: 634840)
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Первый авторBorodkin
Страниц10
ID576254
АннотацияSimulation of historical processes has specific features characterized by the fact that it does not aim at prediction of future development. Over 40 years of its development, it has been a long way for this area of historical computer science in Russia. In this paper we propose a typology of approaches to such simulation in economic and social history, provide a brief overview of the experience gained by the Russian historians in this developing area
УДК930.2:004.94
Borodkin, LeonidI. COMPUTER SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL PROCESSES AND PHENOMENA: THE RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE / LeonidI. Borodkin // Журнал Сибирского федерального университета. Гуманитарные науки. Journal of Siberian Federal University, Humanities& Social Sciences .— 2016 .— №7 .— С. 20-29 .— URL: https://rucont.ru/efd/576254 (дата обращения: 27.04.2024)

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Humanities & Social Sciences 7 (2016 9) 1562-1571 ~ ~ ~ УДК 930.2:004.94 Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience Leonid I. Borodkin* Lomonosov Moscow State University 1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia Received 07.04.2016, received in revised form 29.05.2016, accepted 18.06.2016 Simulation of historical processes has specific features characterized by the fact that it does not aim at prediction of future development. <...> Over 40 years of its development, it has been a long way for this area of historical computer science in Russia. <...> In this paper we propose a typology of approaches to such simulation in economic and social history, provide a brief overview of the experience gained by the Russian historians in this developing area. <...> The problem of historical processes and phenomena simulation is of a strongly marked specificity, characterized by the fact that simulation in this case (as compared to most social sciences) is not aimed at prediction of future development. <...> Here the matter is testing of the hypotheses with the mathematical statistics methods (these are mostly regression models). <...> Computer models, the application of which is not limited to source data processing, were also taken up. <...> These models may be aimed at reconstruction of missing data on the dynamics of the analysed process at a certain time interval; analysis of the historical development alternatives; theoretical study of possible behavior of the analysed phenomenon (or class of phenomena) on the developed mathematical model. <...> This model type can fit into simulation and analytical ones Leonid I. Borodkin. <...> Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience (Borodkin 1995). <...> The experience gained makes it possible to distinguish two types of simulation models: simulation-counterfactual and simulation-alternative models of historical processes. <...> In 1980s-1990s computer models helped to get significant results in the study of social mobility in NEP period (Borodkin, Svishchev 1995), population and demographic processes in the Paleolithic era (Nosevich 1994), etc. <...> The problem of correlation of a model of the analysed historical process, the theories that explain them and the empirical data available as well as the problem of verification of models of different types were set up at this stage. <...> It is worth while starting with the ratios expressing the dependence between the states <...>